El Nino's dry, warm November: why IMD expects below-normal rain despite Cyclone Murasu

The November outlook in one page

The India Meteorological Department's monthly outlook for November 2026 is, in short, drier and warmer than normal. Below-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country, with South Peninsular India, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala and Mahe, and south interior Karnataka, expected to receive less than 77 per cent of its long-period average (LPA), which for November is about 118.7 mm based on 1971-2020 data.

For the country as a whole, November's LPA is about 29.7 mm, and the outlook is also below normal, with exceptions in parts of central, northwest and northeast India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely. That exception matters for the rabi season: central and northwest India are in the wheat-sowing period, and rain there offers respite to farmers after a dry October.

Temperatures point the same way as the dryness. Maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to stay above normal across most regions, with exceptions in the Himalayan foothills for daytime temperatures and in parts of central and eastern India for night-time temperatures. A warmer-than-usual November is therefore the central expectation, not just a drier one.

Two background conditions frame the whole outlook. Very strong El Nino conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral and likely to stay neutral through the post-monsoon season until December. In plain terms: the Pacific is pushing towards dry and warm, and the Indian Ocean is offering no offsetting push towards wet.

October set the scene: a dry month and a hot one

November's forecast does not arrive out of nowhere; it follows a notably dry and hot October. Rainfall over the country in October was 51.7 mm, a deficit of about 31 per cent, making it the sixth-lowest October since 2001 and the 25th lowest since 1901. Rainfall over South Peninsular India, at 122.2 mm, was also the sixth lowest since 2001.

The longer season was dry too. The southwest monsoon from June to September ended 12.6 per cent below its long-period average, in the deficient category and the worst since 2015, when the shortfall was 12.7 per cent. The southwest monsoon withdrew from the entire country around 14-15 October, a near-normal withdrawal pattern, and the northeast monsoon set in on 15 October over the southern peninsula, where it has been normal to above normal since.

October was also exceptionally warm. It was the warmest October for the Southern Peninsula since 1901, with a mean temperature anomaly of 1.17 degrees Celsius above the normal mean of 26.85 degrees. The country's average maximum temperature for the month, 32.43 degrees, was the highest recorded, while the average minimum, 20.83 degrees, was the fifth highest since 1901.

One report of the IMD briefing put October's all-India deficit at 3.5 per cent, but that figure is inconsistent with the 51.7 mm actual and the 31 per cent deficit reported by other outlets covering the same briefing. This article uses the 31 per cent figure, which is corroborated and arithmetically consistent, and readers who see 3.5 per cent elsewhere should treat it with caution.

What El Nino actually is: the Pacific mechanism

El Nino is the warm phase of a natural Pacific climate pattern. In normal conditions, trade winds blow from east to west across the equatorial Pacific, piling warm surface water towards Indonesia and Australia and allowing cooler water to rise off South America. During El Nino, those trade winds weaken, the warm water sloshes back eastwards, and sea-surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rise well above normal.

That warm patch reorganises the atmosphere. The great overturning loop of air over the Pacific, the Walker circulation, shifts eastwards with it: rising air and rainfall move towards the central Pacific, while sinking air, which suppresses cloud and rain, settles more often over the western Pacific and the Maritime Continent, on India's doorstep. The result for India is typically less rainfall and warmer air, though the effect is a shift in odds, not a switch that turns rain off.

Strength matters. The IMD says very strong El Nino conditions are currently prevailing, and global models, including the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System, expect very strong conditions through November and December 2026. The World Meteorological Organization has said El Nino is set to peak towards the end of the year, with effects felt even into 2027. A very strong event tilts the odds further than a weak one.

El Nino is also slow. It builds over months and fades over months, which is why a November outlook can be issued with some confidence in late October: the Pacific state is already in place and will not change overnight. That slowness is what makes El Nino useful for seasonal forecasting, and what makes its dry signal hard to escape in a single month.

Why El Nino dries out India's winter rain, and why the northeast monsoon is different

The northeast monsoon, from October to December, is the season that matters most for the southern peninsula. While most of India gets its rain from the summer southwest monsoon, Tamil Nadu and its neighbours depend heavily on these winter months, when winds reverse and blow from the northeast across the Bay of Bengal, picking up moisture and delivering it to the southeast coast.

El Nino's relationship with the northeast monsoon is less straightforward than with the summer monsoon. A strong El Nino generally suppresses rainfall over India, but the northeast monsoon can still produce intense bursts when individual weather systems, depressions and cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, form and strike the coast. The seasonal total can therefore end up below normal even in a year with a memorable storm, because one system's rain, however heavy, covers days and districts, not the whole season and region.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the other dial that might have helped, but it is not helping this time. The IOD measures the difference in sea-surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean; a positive IOD tends to support Indian rainfall. The IMD says neutral IOD conditions are prevailing and likely to continue through the post-monsoon season until December. Its index has crossed the +0.4 degree threshold, but the IMD notes that sustained values above that threshold are needed before an event is considered established, so for now, the Indian Ocean is neutral, not positive.

Put together, the logic of the November forecast is clear: a very strong El Nino pushing dry, a neutral IOD offering no counter-push, and a seasonal outlook that therefore expects below-normal rain across most of the country, with only parts of central, northwest and northeast India escaping. The forecast is probabilistic, it describes the most likely category, not a precise millimetre total, but the direction of the push is unambiguous.

Cyclone Murasu: the wet exception inside a dry forecast

The exception to the dry month has a name: Murasu, Tamil for drum, contributed by India to the region's cyclone naming list. A well-marked low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal intensified into a depression, and the IMD's late-Saturday bulletin said it would become a deep depression, then a cyclonic storm on 1 November, then a severe cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal on 2 November.

The forecast track takes it to the south Andhra Pradesh coast, crossing between Nellore and Narsapur in the early hours of Tuesday 3 November as a severe cyclonic storm, with sustained winds of 100 to 110 kilometres per hour and gusts to 120. That is an upgrade from the earlier 31 October forecast, which had put winds at 80 to 90 kilometres per hour gusting to 100, a reminder that cyclone forecasts evolve as the system organises, and that the later bulletin is the one to trust.

The rain forecast is correspondingly heavy but narrow. Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema are expected to receive very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall, 115 to 200 mm or more in 24 hours in places, on 2 and 3 November, with heavy rain in south Odisha on 3 and 4 November. Tamil Nadu's impact is expected to be limited, with light to moderate rain and thunderstorms in some areas, including Chennai.

Murasu is the second cyclone of the northeast monsoon season, days after Cyclone Arnab crossed the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts on 28 October. Two cyclones in quick succession do not contradict a dry monthly outlook: they are exactly how a below-normal month can still contain devastating local rain. The month's total is an average over space and time; a cyclone is a concentrated burst in both.

Who feels a dry, warm November most

Farmers feel it first. The northeast monsoon waters the peninsula's winter crops and recharges tanks and groundwater after a deficient summer monsoon, so a below-normal November tightens soil moisture and irrigation needs, especially where the summer shortfall already left reservoirs low. The exception for central and northwest India cuts the other way: normal to above-normal rain there during wheat sowing is genuine relief, and it shows why a single national label, dry, hides regional winners and losers.

Cities feel it through water and heat. A warmer-than-usual November raises cooling demand and keeps nights warm, which matters for health and comfort even without a heatwave label; the forecast's above-normal minimum temperatures mean less overnight relief. Water managers, meanwhile, must stretch supplies that a weak summer monsoon already strained, with the northeast monsoon now expected to under-deliver in the south.

Power systems feel the same warmth from the other side: warmer days and nights tend to lift electricity demand for cooling, at a time when hydropower depends on reservoirs that a dry season does not refill. None of this is a crisis forecast on its own, but it is a set of pressures all pointing the same way, which is why the outlook matters beyond agriculture.

It is worth stating what the outlook is not. It is not a prediction that no rain will fall, that every district will be dry, or that the season is lost. It is a statement that, given a very strong El Nino and a neutral IOD, the odds favour below-normal rain and above-normal temperatures, and that planning, from sowing choices to reservoir releases, should be made against those odds rather than against hope.

What could still change the forecast

The first thing to watch is Murasu itself: its actual track, landfall point and intensity against the forecast. A storm that crosses further north or south, or weakens before landfall, redistributes its rain, and the IMD's bulletins, not social-media speculation, are the authoritative updates. An IMD official noted that India normally experiences four to five cyclones a year, with three to four between October and December, so further Bay systems this season would not be unusual.

The second is El Nino's own path. The IMD expects very strong conditions through November and December, with intensity declining gradually during January to March, and conditions persisting until March 2027. If the decline comes faster or slower than expected, the winter outlook shifts with it, but on the scale of a single month, the Pacific state is largely set.

The third is the Indian Ocean Dipole. Its index has already crossed the +0.4 degree threshold; if values stay above it long enough for a positive IOD event to be declared, that could lend some support to rainfall. For now, the IMD's position is neutral, and that is what the forecast assumes.

Finally, remember the nature of a monthly outlook. It is a probability statement about a category, below normal, normal, above normal, not a day-by-day promise. November may still deliver wet weeks in places, just as October delivered a cyclone inside a dry month. The sensible response to this outlook is to prepare for dry and warm as the likelier case, while tracking each IMD bulletin for the local exceptions that, as Murasu shows, can still arrive with force.

Editorial disclosure

This article was researched with AI assistance and reviewed by the publisher before publication. Report factual errors through our contact page.