Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks: why two days of strikes pushed oil to $118, and what they mean for India

Two tankers, two days: what happened on 29 and 30 October

On 30 October, the Panama-flagged crude oil tanker MT LOUISE 1 was struck by two limpet mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to reports citing maritime security sources. The explosions started a fire in the engine room and temporarily disabled the vessel. The crew put the fire out, no environmental damage was reported, and the tanker resumed its voyage.

The ship was carrying 27 Indian seafarers. India's ports, shipping and waterways minister, Sarbananda Sonowal, said all 27 were completely safe with no injuries, and that the government was monitoring the situation and coordinating with the ship management companies.

A day earlier, on 29 October, the Liberia-flagged very large crude carrier MT ARZANAH came under a projectile attack in the same waterway while carrying two Indian nationals. Together the two vessels carried 29 Indian seafarers, all reported safe. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the British naval agency that issues shipping advisories, put the LOUISE 1 incident about 25 nautical miles (46 kilometres) north-east of Khasab in Oman.

Early characterisations differed: Sonowal's public update described projectile attacks, while later reporting, citing maritime security sources and UKMTO, said a small boat had attached the limpet mines to LOUISE 1's hull. That correction matters, because it changes the picture from a weapon fired at a distance to a device planted on the ship itself.

What a limpet mine is, and why this attack is different

A limpet mine is an explosive device fixed directly to a ship's hull, usually by magnets or clamps, and detonated afterwards. The name comes from the limpet, a sea creature that clings to rock. In this case, reporting says a small craft approached the moving tanker, attached two mines, and left before they detonated.

Maritime risk analysts quoted by Reuters called the method cheap, low-tech and very efficient: it needs no missile, no large vessel and no sophisticated guidance, only a small boat that can get close to a tanker in a crowded lane. That is precisely why it worries shipping companies, because the barrier to attacking a ship falls dramatically.

The LOUISE 1 incident was reported as the first successful use of limpet mines against a vessel in the strait since the United States-Iran conflict began in February 2026. Limpet mines have been present in the region since 2017 and were used against tankers in earlier years, and a similar attempt in September reportedly failed because the explosives did not detonate. The October success therefore marks an escalation in method, even though the physical damage this time was contained.

Oman's rescue, and Iran's claims that could not be verified

Separately on 30 October, Oman's Maritime Security Centre said the Royal Navy of Oman evacuated 25 crew members from the Panama-flagged tanker RITI after a fire broke out aboard, about 1.6 nautical miles off the Musandam coast. It is not clear whether the RITI incident is one of the incidents described by Iran, and the two accounts should not be merged.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said four oil tankers attempting to use routes it calls unauthorised were halted after incidents or after hitting mines. In its account, two tankers were stopped first, and hours later two more, each carrying more than two million barrels of oil, exploded and caught fire after hitting mines on an unauthorised route. The IRGC did not name the vessels or give details of their crews, and the Associated Press reported it could not verify the claims.

The United States military denied the naval-mine claims, with US Central Command chief Brad Cooper saying the strait's internationally recognised primary transit routes had been cleared of Iranian sea mines. That denial, set against Iran's claims, is the central uncertainty of the episode: two opposing official accounts, neither independently confirmed for the four tankers.

For the LOUISE 1 attack specifically, no attacker has been identified. That is an important discipline for readers: the limpet-mine method, the IRGC's mine claims and the US denial are three separate threads, and none of them, on its own, identifies who planted the mines on LOUISE 1.

Why this narrow waterway carries a fifth of the world's oil

The Strait of Hormuz lies between Iran and Oman and links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. It is the only sea passage out of the Gulf, and shipping is funnelled through narrow lanes in a strait only a few dozen kilometres wide at its narrowest.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), about 20 million barrels of oil a day moved through the strait in 2024, roughly 20 per cent of global petroleum liquids consumption, and about a fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, mostly from Qatar, passed through it as well. China, India, Japan and South Korea together took 69 per cent of the crude oil and condensate that transited in 2024.

There is no easy alternative. Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines that can carry some crude to ports outside the Gulf, and their combined spare capacity is a fraction of the daily flow. For Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar, there is no viable seaborne alternative at all. That is why an attack on one tanker moves prices worldwide: traders price not just the damaged ship but the risk to the whole flow.

The legal backdrop adds friction. Under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, ships enjoy transit passage through straits used for international navigation, which bordering states may not hamper or suspend. Iran, which signed but has not ratified the convention, has proposed joint Iranian-Omani management of the waterway, while the United States insists on free passage, a dispute that was already stalling reopening talks before these attacks.

Why Brent crude touched $118

On Friday 30 October, Brent crude settled up 2.4 per cent at $117.64 a barrel after briefly touching $118, a six-month high, while the more actively traded January contract settled at $113.43. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate rose 2.08 per cent to $104.12. Brent is the benchmark for about two-thirds of the world's crude, so its move is the one most economies feel first.

The rise was the fourth straight monthly gain for crude, with both benchmarks up about 0.8 per cent on the week. Markets were reacting to more than one tanker: the Hormuz incidents landed alongside renewed fears that the United States could resume strikes on Iran, and one oil executive quoted in reporting said those fears were keeping supply-risk premiums elevated despite earlier diplomatic efforts.

Politics added to the premium. US President Donald Trump said he believed the war with Iran, then in its ninth month, would end soon, without giving details, and he had previously said Washington would not strike Iran before the US midterm elections on 3 November, a calendar that left traders bracing for possible action soon after the polls. Qatari mediators also returned to Tehran as part of continuing efforts to secure a deal, according to an official briefed on the talks.

None of this means oil stays at $118. Prices at this level combine a real disruption risk with a fear premium, and both can unwind quickly if shipping steadies or diplomacy advances, just as they can spike further if another tanker is hit. The price is best read as a gauge of anxiety, not a verdict on supply.

What it means for India: seafarers first, fuel prices second

The most immediate Indian interest is human: 29 seafarers on two targeted vessels, all reported safe, in a period when Indian crews have repeatedly been in the line of fire. Earlier in October, the Nicaragua-flagged tanker MT Petro Dolphin was reportedly struck by a drone off Oman, and India's external affairs ministry said nine of its eleven Indian crew were rescued while two sailors remained missing. The Hormuz incidents extend that pattern, not start it.

The second interest is economic. India is one of the world's largest crude importers and imports most of the oil it consumes. Estimates cited in Indian coverage put roughly 40 to 50 per cent of India's crude imports as transiting Hormuz, and over half of its LNG imports as coming through the same route. Those are estimates, not official figures, but even the low end describes a deep exposure.

The transmission to households runs through prices. When Brent rises, India's crude import bill rises with it, and sustained high crude feeds into petrol, diesel and cooking-gas prices and, through transport and input costs, into wider inflation. That is the mechanism analysts watch; it does not mean pump prices move the same day, since domestic fuel pricing, taxes and the rupee all sit between Brent and the pump.

Shipping itself is also under strain. UKMTO said shipping through the strait was operating about 70 per cent below pre-war levels, which means fewer transits, higher insurance and freight costs, and thinner margins for error. For India, the policy line has been consistent: freedom of navigation and the safe, unimpeded flow of maritime commerce in accordance with international law, as its external affairs ministry put it after the Petro Dolphin incident.

Five questions that will decide what happens next

First, attribution: will evidence emerge about who attacked LOUISE 1, or will the incident join the list of unattributed Hormuz attacks? The answer shapes whether this is treated as a one-off or as a campaign.

Second, verification: will Iran's claim of four tankers hitting mines be corroborated by independent evidence, named vessels, crews and damage, or remain an unverified claim? Until then, the four-tanker figure should be quoted as a claim, not a count.

Third, volume: does shipping recover towards pre-war levels, or does the 70 per cent shortfall deepen? Transit numbers are the hard data beneath the rhetoric, and they will show whether deterrence or disruption is winning.

Fourth, diplomacy: do the Qatari-mediated efforts produce anything before or after the US midterm elections, and does the war, in its ninth month, move towards a settlement or a new round of strikes? Oil's risk premium will track that answer closely.

Fifth, India's own exposure: how the government protects seafarers and secures energy supplies in the meantime, through monitoring and coordination with ship managers, which it says it is already doing, and through the longer work of diversifying supply routes and sources, which no single incident can complete.

Editorial disclosure

This article was researched with AI assistance and reviewed by the publisher before publication. Report factual errors through our contact page.